* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 47 49 50 47 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 47 49 50 47 45 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 30 29 27 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 1 3 2 2 5 3 3 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 345 351 346 94 96 204 196 243 217 231 224 227 240 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.2 24.3 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 129 127 126 125 116 107 101 96 93 97 103 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 65 64 60 55 53 53 48 46 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 13 10 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 11 6 0 -2 7 1 -2 -23 -15 -18 -6 -12 -8 200 MB DIV 80 64 44 53 55 6 -6 -16 1 -4 -3 12 -13 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 3 1 0 -1 3 0 LAND (KM) 1383 1390 1394 1408 1428 1534 1649 1783 1932 2050 1849 1631 1451 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 10 13 13 12 12 13 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 14 12 10 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -2. -3. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 22. 24. 25. 22. 20. 17. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 119.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.62 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 18.9% 13.4% 5.7% 2.9% 9.6% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 15.2% 10.3% 2.0% 1.0% 3.2% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##