* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 39 39 37 35 31 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 39 39 37 35 31 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 22 20 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 3 1 3 3 4 7 6 8 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 321 310 348 345 299 179 210 191 231 205 241 268 259 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.1 24.1 23.6 23.1 22.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 130 126 124 122 115 105 99 94 91 96 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 67 62 57 54 51 52 50 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 9 3 0 3 -7 -8 -25 -19 -24 -13 -20 200 MB DIV 49 57 54 39 37 43 18 3 -6 -10 -5 -12 18 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1303 1302 1306 1308 1304 1359 1452 1557 1723 1892 2008 1932 1669 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 11 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 18 14 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 117.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.65 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.3% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 11.1% 7.8% 1.1% 0.5% 5.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 13.3% 8.9% 0.5% 0.2% 2.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##