* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 31 34 38 40 41 39 39 38 33 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 31 34 38 40 41 39 39 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 23 22 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 5 2 5 9 5 6 4 3 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 16 327 323 341 291 178 188 185 210 222 259 271 272 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.4 24.6 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 136 133 130 128 126 117 109 104 102 100 97 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 72 69 64 60 55 53 53 55 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 9 10 4 9 16 3 -12 -19 -26 -19 -24 200 MB DIV 20 39 53 53 39 56 36 0 6 1 6 -6 7 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 2 2 2 3 6 1 LAND (KM) 1261 1288 1323 1358 1381 1459 1565 1634 1717 1842 1998 2112 1904 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 19 19 15 10 14 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 14. 14. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 116.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.68 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.4% 9.3% 0.6% 0.3% 7.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 13.1% 9.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##