* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 38 43 46 48 47 44 40 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 38 43 46 48 47 44 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 2 3 3 4 4 2 6 4 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 46 21 352 358 331 266 182 220 206 243 207 219 222 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.6 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.3 23.1 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 134 131 129 133 131 124 116 107 95 89 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 71 66 63 61 58 55 53 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 8 6 8 4 7 2 10 3 -7 -18 -15 -28 -18 200 MB DIV 7 20 32 43 42 38 53 22 17 2 -2 -10 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 4 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 1236 1249 1280 1313 1353 1447 1567 1699 1784 1860 1934 2002 1976 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.5 19.2 21.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.1 118.1 119.0 120.0 121.9 123.6 125.4 127.1 129.3 131.5 133.8 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 21 22 20 15 16 17 11 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 21. 23. 22. 19. 15. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 116.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.68 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.5% 6.8% 0.6% 0.2% 5.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 11.4% 8.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##