* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 42 45 44 43 39 34 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 42 45 44 43 39 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 30 29 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 5 3 5 5 8 8 12 15 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 67 45 360 359 8 277 230 222 229 227 242 242 256 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.8 26.6 25.8 25.3 25.1 24.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 134 130 132 130 122 118 116 107 99 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 72 71 70 64 61 56 54 51 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 3 7 4 7 2 8 0 -11 -12 -13 -10 200 MB DIV -10 7 16 28 39 35 36 35 14 12 -2 0 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 2 7 6 8 6 LAND (KM) 1219 1223 1246 1279 1321 1407 1521 1663 1789 1925 2073 2029 1761 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.8 20.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.2 117.2 118.2 119.1 121.1 123.1 125.3 127.6 130.1 132.8 135.4 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 20 21 22 17 13 18 9 3 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 17. 20. 19. 18. 14. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 115.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 4.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 11.1% 7.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##