* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 45 47 47 45 41 37 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 45 47 47 45 41 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 36 36 35 33 31 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 7 6 5 1 5 6 7 11 17 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 43 37 20 355 358 320 282 235 249 232 244 237 236 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 142 140 134 134 135 130 123 119 116 106 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 72 72 71 66 61 57 53 51 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 8 6 6 6 9 10 3 5 -1 -9 -24 -14 -16 200 MB DIV -8 -3 12 17 26 38 47 45 23 7 8 6 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 4 7 4 1 LAND (KM) 1242 1259 1287 1313 1352 1418 1490 1598 1753 1872 2022 2161 1883 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.8 19.0 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.4 116.5 117.4 118.4 120.0 121.8 123.8 126.2 128.7 131.5 134.2 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 10 11 12 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 23 21 22 22 16 19 13 7 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 22. 22. 20. 16. 12. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 114.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.3% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 15.4% 5.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 14.5% 8.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##