* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 45 46 46 43 39 31 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 45 46 46 43 39 31 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 37 36 33 29 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 7 8 7 3 3 4 11 12 18 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 49 41 28 13 11 348 321 205 226 204 204 202 208 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.0 22.5 22.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 139 137 135 131 127 121 116 105 89 87 91 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 68 70 68 65 59 54 48 46 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 -4 -7 -8 -6 5 3 2 0 0 -1 -8 200 MB DIV 34 5 2 2 9 9 30 11 17 -3 3 -9 10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 4 2 6 4 LAND (KM) 1040 1040 1062 1034 1017 1044 1098 1205 1327 1487 1681 1752 1847 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 16.2 17.3 18.5 19.7 21.2 22.6 24.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.3 113.1 114.0 114.9 117.0 119.2 121.8 124.6 127.8 130.8 133.8 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 25 25 15 11 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 21. 21. 18. 14. 6. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 111.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 15.0% 7.8% 1.4% 0.7% 8.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 23.5% 11.5% 3.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 21.2% 11.9% 1.7% 0.7% 2.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##