* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 39 45 50 53 54 53 49 44 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 39 45 50 53 54 53 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 32 33 31 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 15 11 7 5 3 4 8 8 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 56 53 52 60 63 38 31 344 301 260 232 217 202 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.0 25.6 24.9 23.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 144 142 139 137 134 125 122 114 98 85 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 69 69 70 68 64 59 55 48 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 7 3 -1 -8 -14 -11 -14 -13 -19 -27 -17 200 MB DIV 76 75 60 40 29 8 5 12 15 22 4 0 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 3 3 6 LAND (KM) 1113 1124 1129 1136 1140 1143 1103 1137 1209 1342 1459 1610 1716 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.2 13.3 14.5 15.6 16.8 18.1 19.7 21.4 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.9 111.4 112.0 112.6 113.9 115.6 117.6 120.2 123.1 126.3 129.3 132.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 16 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 17 16 14 16 18 16 13 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 33. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 110.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 58.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 7.7% 4.3% 1.5% 0.7% 5.4% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.4% 5.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##