* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 37 43 49 53 55 55 54 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 37 43 49 53 55 55 54 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 27 31 34 37 38 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 15 15 10 10 6 3 5 10 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 53 55 54 61 64 54 77 328 303 303 253 238 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.4 26.3 25.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 144 144 142 138 139 136 130 129 118 113 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 69 68 67 68 66 64 61 55 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 21 14 9 6 -5 -3 0 3 -7 4 -6 200 MB DIV 73 72 76 56 37 23 6 10 30 37 25 8 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 1120 1138 1155 1160 1168 1195 1192 1189 1277 1389 1561 1741 1967 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 111.1 111.6 112.1 113.3 114.6 116.1 118.4 121.2 124.5 128.0 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 13 16 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 17 16 12 14 20 21 18 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 29. 33. 35. 35. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 110.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.28 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 3.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 0.4% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##