* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 31 39 47 53 58 59 61 60 59 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 31 39 47 53 58 59 61 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 37 41 45 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 15 14 11 8 8 3 4 5 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -7 -5 -4 -7 -5 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 54 52 56 58 56 76 53 55 24 307 301 276 250 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.3 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 144 145 145 145 144 143 146 149 143 148 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 70 69 68 70 69 68 65 65 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 29 27 18 7 6 5 5 11 6 7 7 200 MB DIV 74 64 60 64 42 8 10 19 15 35 44 16 30 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1072 1100 1134 1181 1233 1317 1359 1417 1520 1645 1801 2018 2260 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.8 111.6 112.4 113.2 114.9 116.4 117.9 119.7 121.9 124.5 127.7 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 10 11 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 17 15 14 13 21 20 18 26 37 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 9. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 19. 27. 33. 38. 39. 41. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 110.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4% 3.1% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.3% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##