* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 40 49 57 62 64 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 40 49 57 62 64 63 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 46 51 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 8 9 12 6 6 6 2 7 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 36 38 32 30 20 36 68 18 41 305 289 302 301 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 146 147 149 148 146 147 150 152 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 74 72 71 71 73 72 71 69 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 14 23 26 14 8 9 6 2 12 17 8 200 MB DIV 86 77 76 72 56 46 27 25 16 36 52 60 40 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1012 1060 1106 1169 1238 1366 1437 1498 1566 1646 1751 1865 2002 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.6 110.6 111.6 112.6 114.4 116.2 117.7 119.1 120.4 122.0 124.0 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 22 19 18 19 15 23 25 18 21 35 36 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 29. 37. 42. 44. 43. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 108.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 41.0% 30.7% 16.6% 11.1% 30.4% 31.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 10.9% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3% 1.6% 2.8% Consensus: 2.3% 17.3% 11.7% 5.9% 3.8% 10.7% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##