* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 40 48 55 59 62 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 40 48 55 59 62 65 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 33 39 44 51 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 9 7 9 11 11 9 9 8 6 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 2 1 -1 -5 -7 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 55 47 56 45 49 42 49 36 51 341 342 3 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 147 148 148 149 150 149 148 146 148 150 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 74 74 72 70 73 72 71 69 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 13 22 31 29 31 25 13 12 8 4 6 12 4 200 MB DIV 72 80 79 74 72 50 26 27 14 47 39 67 60 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1018 1092 1165 1247 1336 1484 1561 1599 1628 1648 1699 1743 1786 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 110.2 111.4 112.5 113.6 115.3 116.7 117.8 118.8 119.4 120.3 121.4 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 11 10 7 6 5 5 3 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 19 18 20 19 20 29 31 25 23 25 31 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 35. 39. 42. 45. 46. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 108.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.6% 11.8% 2.2% 1.0% 13.4% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% Consensus: 1.0% 5.6% 4.5% 0.8% 0.4% 4.6% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##