* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 22 19 17 16 17 20 23 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 22 19 17 16 17 20 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 7 9 8 11 14 17 11 9 6 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 4 7 6 4 7 1 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 188 234 241 239 236 253 235 244 240 211 194 244 290 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 140 140 139 140 141 144 147 152 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 51 49 43 38 37 38 40 42 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 16 23 33 46 43 25 9 13 33 46 56 200 MB DIV 58 53 54 67 79 36 0 -14 5 -9 -2 8 4 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2267 2284 2317 2349 2389 2491 2562 2608 2679 2680 2645 2610 2554 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.3 10.8 10.4 10.0 9.5 8.8 7.9 6.8 5.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.7 129.2 129.6 129.9 130.7 131.2 131.4 131.8 132.5 133.4 134.5 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 4 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 17 21 25 29 28 28 24 18 14 14 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -21. -22. -22. -21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -5. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 128.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.46 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 191.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.17 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.4% 4.2% 0.7% 0.3% 2.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.3% 6.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##