* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 33 32 32 33 35 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 35 33 32 32 33 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 21 20 19 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 4 6 3 8 13 13 9 8 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 4 7 5 4 2 -3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 150 154 178 195 212 262 222 226 220 193 181 224 360 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 140 140 141 142 143 145 149 153 156 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 46 49 49 51 50 46 41 38 36 38 40 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 14 25 31 43 48 39 24 27 40 50 54 200 MB DIV 53 65 62 52 62 46 10 -3 14 20 25 22 13 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2260 2291 2331 2363 2395 2489 2559 2597 2620 2707 2809 2835 2807 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.3 7.5 6.6 6.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.5 129.1 129.5 129.8 130.4 130.7 130.8 130.7 131.0 131.5 132.2 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 19 22 25 29 32 35 39 41 22 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 127.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.13 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.7% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 16.0% 13.7% 5.2% 2.5% 12.6% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 14.3% 11.1% 1.7% 0.8% 4.2% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##