* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 58 58 55 51 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 58 58 55 51 50 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 48 52 53 51 48 45 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 2 1 4 3 5 10 11 11 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 0 0 3 6 6 3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 78 72 86 133 100 163 305 220 220 200 187 161 120 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 144 143 143 144 144 145 146 148 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 41 43 47 50 51 51 51 45 41 38 40 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 12 15 16 35 41 52 41 34 36 48 57 200 MB DIV 20 31 48 59 50 55 39 23 10 10 12 13 10 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2190 2239 2276 2306 2330 2385 2448 2471 2473 2476 2514 2578 2635 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.4 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.7 8.0 7.1 6.3 LONG(DEG W) 126.3 127.2 127.8 128.3 128.6 129.0 129.2 129.2 128.9 128.4 128.1 127.9 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 16 18 19 24 27 28 27 28 34 50 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 28. 28. 25. 21. 20. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 126.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.98 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.57 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.18 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 29.2% 21.4% 14.4% 0.0% 17.8% 17.8% Logistic: 6.9% 29.8% 29.9% 14.2% 7.7% 26.0% 19.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 6.0% 20.3% 17.3% 9.6% 2.6% 14.6% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##