* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 52 58 58 56 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 52 58 58 56 59 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 39 43 45 47 49 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 5 5 3 1 0 7 7 9 13 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 1 4 2 3 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 64 51 43 50 67 115 172 177 184 166 105 71 79 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 144 142 143 145 145 146 148 152 153 153 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 41 42 45 49 51 53 53 50 46 43 39 43 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 17 16 20 31 43 55 62 56 47 46 57 200 MB DIV -3 16 26 46 53 54 54 25 21 20 43 49 66 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2173 2235 2278 2308 2331 2354 2387 2422 2411 2392 2396 2411 2381 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.1 9.6 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.1 5.8 5.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.7 127.4 127.9 128.2 128.3 128.2 128.0 127.5 126.6 125.2 123.8 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 4 2 1 3 2 4 7 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 17 18 19 21 23 24 25 33 63 53 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 21. 27. 33. 33. 31. 34. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 125.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.46 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.18 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.76 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 33.4% 17.9% 8.9% 4.5% 17.6% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 19.1% 11.6% 3.0% 1.5% 5.9% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##