* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 45 43 38 35 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 45 43 38 35 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 27 26 24 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 2 1 1 5 4 8 14 15 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 1 0 -2 3 4 4 3 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 51 21 292 294 265 244 195 279 216 234 224 221 204 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 145 143 142 141 143 143 143 145 148 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 44 48 52 54 53 48 42 39 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 7 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 19 13 14 13 15 31 39 49 36 35 44 47 200 MB DIV -1 -2 10 19 35 49 58 42 31 4 14 14 8 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2067 2109 2149 2184 2213 2252 2291 2346 2385 2386 2410 2493 2614 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.0 9.9 9.5 8.5 7.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.4 126.2 126.9 127.4 128.0 128.3 128.5 128.6 128.5 128.4 128.4 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 6 4 2 2 3 1 1 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 19 15 14 13 16 20 23 23 24 30 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 17. 20. 18. 13. 10. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 124.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.20 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 27.2% 24.1% 9.3% 4.2% 19.9% 29.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 18.5% 14.6% 3.1% 1.4% 6.7% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##