* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 41 50 54 54 52 50 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 41 50 54 54 52 50 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 39 38 35 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 2 1 2 2 6 6 10 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 3 2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 114 81 87 69 63 6 127 214 224 186 175 149 79 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 147 145 143 143 145 144 146 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 42 43 47 48 52 51 49 46 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 39 30 23 19 21 19 19 39 46 52 63 66 88 200 MB DIV 23 19 13 8 18 50 32 52 42 30 10 17 21 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 3 3 2 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 2016 2062 2092 2116 2135 2145 2145 2135 2123 2114 2083 2071 2093 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.6 8.9 8.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 123.9 124.5 125.0 125.4 125.8 125.8 125.4 125.1 124.7 123.8 122.8 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 1 2 2 2 3 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 31 28 26 23 23 26 28 31 36 44 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 16. 25. 29. 29. 27. 25. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 123.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 221.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.8% 9.6% 1.8% 0.6% 7.5% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 3.3% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##