* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 41 50 56 58 56 55 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 41 50 56 58 56 55 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 39 43 43 42 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 8 12 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 0 -2 0 3 1 -5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 131 110 74 80 62 71 47 165 215 173 168 145 95 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 148 147 144 144 146 147 149 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 41 41 42 43 44 47 48 50 51 51 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 39 31 24 19 22 19 31 39 53 66 84 93 200 MB DIV 37 29 30 21 11 43 37 37 44 34 20 38 58 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 1 3 5 4 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 1973 2033 2074 2103 2112 2128 2126 2092 2061 2031 1971 1913 1896 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.6 9.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.2 123.8 124.4 124.8 125.3 125.4 124.9 124.3 123.7 122.7 121.4 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 3 3 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 37 35 33 29 26 26 28 31 33 39 59 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 16. 25. 32. 33. 31. 30. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 122.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 213.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 20.6% 9.9% 3.2% 1.2% 8.0% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 6.9% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4% 2.7% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##