* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 26 32 39 44 47 45 41 37 33 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 23 26 32 39 44 47 45 41 37 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 22 23 26 28 29 28 25 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 4 2 3 5 5 7 12 19 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 2 3 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 130 114 120 124 104 103 168 197 218 231 244 239 230 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 153 150 147 145 143 141 138 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 46 44 45 45 48 48 45 43 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 53 52 51 47 40 26 23 25 19 36 28 31 25 200 MB DIV 31 42 47 48 50 44 62 94 40 58 24 11 2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 6 9 7 5 3 LAND (KM) 1785 1836 1885 1929 1964 1985 1983 1990 1998 2026 2041 2090 2139 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.2 12.7 12.9 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 120.9 121.5 122.0 122.6 123.4 124.2 124.8 125.5 126.2 126.9 127.7 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 57 55 49 40 34 29 27 22 16 10 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 22. 20. 16. 12. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 120.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.67 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.19 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 185.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4.9% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##