* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 24 26 29 33 38 40 37 34 29 23 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 24 26 29 33 38 40 37 34 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 22 23 24 25 25 24 21 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 5 3 0 2 6 9 14 21 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 2 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 111 124 105 110 147 145 182 207 256 239 247 249 252 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 153 150 147 143 140 136 132 129 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 49 48 46 46 46 46 48 51 49 46 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 47 46 41 27 17 18 16 7 14 16 14 200 MB DIV 30 28 38 46 45 41 55 85 71 69 29 8 1 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 4 4 4 3 LAND (KM) 1741 1782 1832 1882 1924 1980 1998 2027 2056 2069 2108 2124 2152 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.5 121.1 121.7 122.4 123.6 124.8 125.9 126.9 127.8 128.6 129.4 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 55 52 42 32 27 19 11 6 6 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 9. 13. 15. 12. 9. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 120.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.66 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.43 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.9% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.0% 12.0% 0.7% 0.3% 15.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 12.4% 11.4% 0.3% 0.1% 5.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##