* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 31 28 25 21 17 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 31 28 25 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 5 4 4 3 8 8 11 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 2 3 -1 1 1 5 6 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 110 147 188 182 182 243 296 255 259 262 253 265 247 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 151 148 146 142 136 131 127 128 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 45 44 42 43 44 48 47 45 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 41 37 39 32 18 7 11 23 32 23 25 200 MB DIV 41 32 30 31 30 17 16 35 36 43 54 24 -1 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 0 -2 1 -2 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1678 1702 1751 1825 1903 2058 2184 2285 2339 2376 2431 2448 2441 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.6 121.5 122.6 123.8 126.2 128.3 130.0 131.3 132.1 132.6 132.8 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 12 11 10 8 6 3 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 46 43 33 18 11 16 15 9 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 120.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 226.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.4% 6.8% 9.4% 1.3% 0.5% 8.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##