* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 34 35 32 30 26 24 19 17 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 34 35 32 30 26 24 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 31 29 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 11 12 15 16 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 6 3 4 1 -2 0 4 5 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 117 140 190 192 212 208 257 263 250 262 254 264 249 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 151 148 147 142 135 129 122 119 121 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 48 46 42 40 41 44 44 43 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 36 41 39 42 34 29 28 35 40 33 36 200 MB DIV 42 41 28 22 23 28 13 12 33 13 43 42 21 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1663 1668 1707 1779 1852 2035 2193 2310 2384 2354 2296 2254 2248 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.6 14.3 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.1 120.9 122.0 123.3 126.0 128.5 130.7 132.4 133.3 133.8 134.3 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 49 43 44 47 38 20 11 16 7 4 3 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -6. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 119.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.58 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.31 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 203.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.21 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 28.7% 23.2% 16.2% 0.0% 18.9% 16.8% Logistic: 2.9% 7.1% 12.3% 1.5% 0.6% 11.2% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 12.0% 11.8% 5.9% 0.2% 10.0% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##