* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 45 42 39 35 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 45 42 39 35 35 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 35 32 29 26 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 5 5 5 7 7 9 6 2 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 8 5 3 1 -4 -4 0 5 5 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 84 117 121 120 136 126 204 253 257 240 297 215 220 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 153 152 149 148 140 136 133 129 124 126 129 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 59 56 51 49 45 41 39 41 42 47 45 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 43 45 43 50 54 52 48 63 55 57 46 200 MB DIV 33 43 40 36 35 50 7 8 9 14 26 25 7 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 0 -2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1703 1744 1797 1869 1951 2173 2402 2501 2328 2200 2141 2134 2147 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.0 12.7 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.7 121.8 123.0 124.5 127.6 130.5 132.7 134.3 135.4 135.9 136.1 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 13 15 15 13 9 7 4 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 47 39 28 12 22 12 11 8 6 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 12. 9. 5. 5. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 119.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.56 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.23 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 208.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.20 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 25.4% 20.8% 14.9% 0.0% 17.5% 15.8% Logistic: 3.4% 12.6% 12.1% 4.0% 1.6% 10.2% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 4.4% 12.7% 11.0% 6.3% 0.5% 9.2% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 18 UTC ##