* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 50 48 44 42 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 50 48 44 42 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 35 34 32 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 6 4 6 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 3 6 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 70 79 79 91 99 109 106 273 290 260 292 275 269 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 155 153 151 148 140 135 133 129 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 55 52 47 41 41 42 45 48 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 38 41 46 45 44 44 49 40 41 39 47 40 200 MB DIV 46 40 54 48 53 60 12 -2 7 13 26 39 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1755 1799 1847 1886 1954 2111 2283 2447 2535 2374 2246 2167 2145 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.1 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.2 121.2 122.1 123.2 125.8 128.3 130.6 132.4 133.8 134.9 135.6 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 12 13 12 11 8 6 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 49 54 59 47 36 21 16 24 14 10 9 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 25. 23. 19. 17. 14. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 119.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.65 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.38 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.24 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.4% 5.6% 0.9% 0.4% 6.1% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 9.9% 8.4% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##