* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 62 65 66 66 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 62 65 66 66 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 41 48 55 61 64 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 4 5 4 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 2 -3 -3 -6 -4 -4 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 77 83 90 92 81 71 74 29 29 23 354 322 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 156 153 152 150 148 140 135 132 129 131 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 63 59 57 55 49 44 41 42 44 46 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 38 43 51 46 51 49 43 37 35 33 29 200 MB DIV 51 40 26 39 58 65 56 28 23 20 21 17 48 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1729 1791 1851 1912 1969 2107 2249 2369 2495 2520 2400 2345 2368 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.9 12.6 12.7 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.8 121.0 122.0 122.9 125.0 127.0 129.0 131.0 132.6 133.5 134.0 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 4 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 46 38 42 35 29 20 16 23 22 11 9 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 37. 40. 41. 41. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 118.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.28 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 11.3% 13.7% 4.2% 2.2% 16.4% 19.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.8% 13.1% 11.0% 1.5% 0.7% 5.5% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##