* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 57 62 65 66 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 57 62 65 66 69 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 49 56 63 70 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 9 6 5 7 8 1 5 7 5 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 3 0 -4 -6 -4 -6 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 94 106 82 80 108 81 76 99 135 100 78 70 23 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 156 152 151 147 140 137 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 59 54 50 44 43 44 45 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 33 33 35 42 38 44 52 47 39 23 15 200 MB DIV 47 50 54 38 45 51 39 16 15 39 48 51 37 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1625 1658 1702 1747 1811 1959 2147 2346 2520 2516 2403 2369 2391 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.0 119.1 120.1 121.3 123.7 126.4 129.0 131.3 132.9 133.9 134.1 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 13 13 12 10 7 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 60 52 47 38 36 24 16 21 21 11 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 32. 37. 40. 41. 44. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 117.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.61 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.9% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.1% 39.0% 29.8% 18.6% 12.0% 39.2% 50.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% Consensus: 4.1% 26.7% 18.6% 6.4% 4.0% 13.4% 17.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##