* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 53 59 64 66 69 73 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 53 59 64 66 69 73 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 39 45 53 62 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 8 6 4 4 10 7 8 6 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 0 2 5 0 -5 -7 -6 -6 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 98 112 124 124 119 137 81 84 98 81 71 64 57 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 157 156 154 151 151 145 141 138 135 134 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 60 58 53 49 46 43 45 46 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 12 10 11 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 30 27 30 42 47 54 60 59 44 22 16 200 MB DIV 26 59 68 55 43 37 53 52 29 44 56 78 71 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1546 1567 1581 1623 1670 1820 2031 2253 2449 2579 2613 2555 2468 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.7 11.3 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.4 117.3 118.4 119.6 122.0 124.9 127.6 129.9 131.4 132.1 132.0 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 13 9 5 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 86 72 55 54 44 33 20 16 26 20 15 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 28. 34. 39. 41. 44. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 115.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.82 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.46 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.35 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.7% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 11.9% 13.1% 2.9% 1.3% 15.1% 25.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% Consensus: 1.9% 14.6% 12.4% 1.0% 0.4% 5.1% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##