* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 49 57 62 66 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 49 57 62 66 66 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 33 38 44 50 55 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 13 9 6 5 10 11 9 8 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 -2 3 2 -3 -6 -5 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 96 108 114 118 123 103 62 66 81 82 74 86 145 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 158 157 156 153 151 150 146 140 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 61 60 57 50 48 43 45 47 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 29 33 30 31 48 54 62 63 47 24 11 200 MB DIV 26 38 64 62 43 29 48 61 45 49 26 40 48 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1515 1569 1581 1607 1650 1789 1980 2182 2362 2487 2515 2454 2370 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.7 11.9 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.8 116.7 117.6 118.7 121.1 123.6 126.2 128.4 130.0 130.9 131.3 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 11 10 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 88 83 65 54 52 36 25 16 21 27 23 20 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 24. 32. 37. 41. 41. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 114.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.90 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.31 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.06 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.1% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.5% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4.0% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 0.6% 9.5% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##