* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 44 52 57 62 62 64 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 44 52 57 62 62 64 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 29 32 35 39 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 15 12 4 2 1 5 3 7 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 4 0 -1 4 7 5 2 0 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 100 107 111 115 123 111 90 187 56 54 53 98 153 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 157 156 153 149 147 148 148 143 135 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 62 61 55 51 48 47 47 48 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 13 12 13 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 21 24 30 26 37 56 57 45 36 19 8 200 MB DIV 31 33 41 56 62 39 37 58 67 48 49 32 76 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 2 0 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1553 1568 1576 1592 1612 1696 1821 1915 2005 2089 2190 2238 2267 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 6 5 7 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 85 77 63 54 54 39 33 26 22 18 15 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 7. 6. 7. 6. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 19. 27. 32. 37. 37. 39. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 115.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.88 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.20 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.0% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.0% 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 6.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 12.7% 9.7% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##