* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 34 41 49 57 62 64 67 69 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 34 41 49 57 62 64 67 69 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 36 40 43 45 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 8 9 6 1 1 0 2 4 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 7 3 0 -2 1 3 4 0 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 95 102 112 129 121 121 265 217 48 51 93 127 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 159 158 158 156 156 155 151 148 146 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 63 64 61 59 57 53 51 50 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 15 14 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 20 24 28 26 33 44 53 42 29 6 -4 200 MB DIV 55 40 20 28 48 50 49 69 85 83 74 40 31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1434 1441 1449 1480 1514 1576 1614 1709 1851 1948 1963 2009 2088 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 7 7 6 9 9 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 85 86 87 87 87 63 54 43 38 27 23 20 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 9. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 16. 24. 32. 37. 39. 42. 44. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 113.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 86.4 0.0 to 75.9 1.00 8.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 39.2% 29.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 14.6% 11.1% 2.1% 1.0% 16.5% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 18.1% 13.4% 0.7% 0.3% 5.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##