* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 41 47 48 53 54 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 41 47 48 53 54 57 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 34 34 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 10 7 7 9 3 7 7 2 5 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 6 2 -1 0 0 0 4 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 95 104 119 111 153 225 239 229 200 91 102 121 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 157 155 156 154 155 153 148 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 58 59 58 54 52 50 49 45 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 13 13 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 20 10 15 14 13 35 40 45 28 19 7 200 MB DIV 59 55 38 22 18 30 44 52 53 79 54 67 31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1412 1430 1449 1453 1460 1469 1536 1632 1744 1852 1923 1985 2049 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 81 85 87 85 82 67 52 47 35 32 24 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 23. 28. 29. 32. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 113.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 84.0 0.0 to 75.9 1.00 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 38.4% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 10.5% 6.2% 2.1% 1.0% 8.2% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 0.8% 16.7% 11.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.8% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##