* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 47 57 63 68 71 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 47 57 63 68 71 72 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 36 42 49 55 61 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 11 9 9 8 5 6 0 1 5 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 3 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 80 82 92 102 95 90 75 36 336 111 13 58 80 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 159 161 159 157 155 155 154 152 147 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 61 61 62 63 60 57 55 50 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 16 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 22 22 15 30 40 45 53 57 51 34 23 200 MB DIV 79 52 57 41 26 44 43 49 59 66 52 74 82 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1405 1424 1456 1515 1600 1710 1800 1844 1858 1905 1976 2033 2095 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.3 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.3 114.0 114.8 115.8 117.7 119.0 119.9 120.7 121.9 123.4 125.3 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 9 10 8 5 4 6 7 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 79 84 88 89 82 49 40 36 42 36 26 19 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 14. 22. 32. 38. 43. 46. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 112.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 84.4 0.0 to 75.9 1.00 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.70 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.7% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.3% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.1% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 12.1% 9.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##