* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 57 59 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 57 59 62 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 37 40 44 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 14 11 6 4 2 2 3 2 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 -1 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 75 78 86 98 103 108 90 341 232 216 124 28 64 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 159 159 158 156 155 153 153 148 146 143 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 60 60 60 59 58 54 49 45 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 14 16 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 21 23 17 18 27 30 40 62 73 57 36 200 MB DIV 93 66 43 42 41 36 30 41 57 49 50 58 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1560 1584 1609 1620 1629 1650 1718 1782 1853 1922 1999 2048 2073 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 8 8 5 5 8 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 89 86 80 77 72 51 39 34 32 27 21 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 28. 32. 34. 37. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.7 114.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 80.8 0.0 to 75.9 1.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.5% 5.0% 0.9% 0.4% 9.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##