* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 59 66 69 71 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 59 66 69 71 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 47 55 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 13 11 9 4 5 5 5 6 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 6 4 0 3 5 1 -1 -3 -3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 91 80 76 81 93 112 130 105 76 119 117 94 85 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 160 159 159 159 157 155 154 151 149 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 60 60 59 58 56 51 45 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 10 11 10 11 12 14 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 19 23 23 17 20 27 29 51 68 78 80 200 MB DIV 113 108 77 57 43 35 22 33 63 73 83 78 76 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1538 1558 1579 1604 1632 1660 1709 1776 1855 1942 2046 2129 2205 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 91 88 85 80 73 51 41 35 29 24 19 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 34. 41. 44. 46. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.8 114.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 83.4 0.0 to 75.9 1.00 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.62 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 48.0% 31.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 23.7% 14.9% 7.3% 4.4% 21.5% 31.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.1% Consensus: 1.9% 24.4% 15.7% 2.4% 1.5% 7.5% 10.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##