* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 39 48 53 62 67 75 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 39 48 53 62 67 75 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 35 39 48 56 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 13 11 6 1 2 10 12 5 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 5 -4 -6 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 94 93 75 62 55 23 7 132 73 58 17 36 22 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 164 164 163 160 156 153 158 160 159 156 153 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 60 60 64 62 60 56 55 53 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 13 14 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 22 28 30 24 19 20 31 41 54 53 52 200 MB DIV 118 120 112 71 39 22 -6 4 53 105 125 84 73 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1500 1602 1725 1845 1953 2123 2240 2256 2197 2035 1842 1712 1641 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.9 8.5 7.9 7.3 6.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 7.1 8.7 10.2 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.2 116.4 117.4 118.4 119.6 120.5 120.8 120.6 119.6 118.9 119.1 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 10 7 3 2 5 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 79 55 34 27 23 22 24 25 23 22 27 37 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 387 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 13. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 23. 28. 37. 42. 50. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 113.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.57 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.70 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.0% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 19.8% 16.9% 4.9% 2.8% 26.4% 16.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 1.9% 17.8% 13.0% 1.8% 1.0% 8.9% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##