* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 49 58 67 74 79 84 87 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 49 58 67 74 79 84 87 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 46 52 59 69 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 9 10 11 7 5 6 7 5 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 5 3 2 -1 -2 4 6 4 SHEAR DIR 105 105 102 80 65 64 79 73 71 52 69 89 104 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 161 162 162 162 159 157 157 157 151 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 61 62 62 63 63 61 57 51 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 25 18 12 16 18 28 23 29 31 34 40 51 63 200 MB DIV 114 124 122 111 104 50 39 46 56 83 89 99 83 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1330 1364 1417 1481 1579 1772 1933 2000 1979 1911 1885 1939 2127 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.4 7.5 7.3 7.8 8.9 10.0 11.2 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.4 113.2 114.0 115.0 116.9 118.4 119.3 119.8 120.4 121.5 123.8 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 10 7 3 5 7 10 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 75 82 83 75 59 30 23 22 23 34 39 21 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 14. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 24. 33. 42. 49. 54. 59. 62. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 111.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 7.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 10.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 74.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.99 14.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.86 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.16 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 60.6% 53.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 26.4% 16.8% 8.0% 4.3% 23.0% 20.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.7% 3.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 1.8% Consensus: 1.5% 31.6% 24.5% 2.8% 1.5% 8.1% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##