* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 31 43 54 62 72 76 82 85 85 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 31 43 54 62 72 76 82 85 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 39 46 53 64 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 5 7 9 9 10 8 8 8 5 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 8 10 10 8 4 3 3 0 -3 -4 2 4 SHEAR DIR 90 105 91 99 98 63 67 55 70 89 65 97 128 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 157 159 160 162 161 160 160 158 156 155 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 66 66 63 62 63 63 62 57 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 15 17 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 35 26 22 30 37 27 37 40 47 53 57 200 MB DIV 90 107 115 124 126 119 63 32 40 46 76 91 65 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1252 1253 1275 1300 1342 1475 1649 1828 1880 1854 1762 1739 1829 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.6 7.6 7.6 8.1 9.3 10.3 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.5 110.9 111.5 112.2 113.8 115.5 116.8 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.7 121.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 7 9 8 6 3 5 7 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 65 71 79 79 47 26 25 26 33 36 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 23. 34. 42. 52. 56. 62. 65. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.2 110.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.89 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.27 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 15.5% 18.7% 5.3% 2.9% 31.8% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.1% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% Consensus: 1.1% 7.9% 7.4% 2.0% 1.0% 10.9% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##