* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 05/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 28 37 44 49 53 55 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 28 37 44 49 53 55 58 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 6 6 8 8 8 6 6 14 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 8 7 8 7 10 7 9 6 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 105 97 80 73 94 67 97 123 152 126 80 69 39 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 159 159 162 163 162 159 154 152 157 160 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 65 62 60 61 62 63 58 57 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 28 17 9 23 35 25 34 31 47 54 54 200 MB DIV 64 84 99 99 100 112 74 45 8 4 14 69 79 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1268 1267 1293 1352 1415 1579 1796 1988 2170 2286 2310 2227 2040 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.0 8.1 7.1 6.1 5.6 5.6 6.1 7.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.1 111.7 112.5 113.3 115.0 116.9 118.7 120.3 121.5 121.9 121.3 120.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 4 2 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 70 80 81 59 29 23 22 28 31 25 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 38. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 110.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 72.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.95 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 13.0% 14.6% 2.6% 1.3% 27.1% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.7% 5.8% 5.5% 1.0% 0.5% 9.1% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##