* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 05/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 39 49 58 63 64 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 39 49 58 63 64 66 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 33 35 35 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 9 7 7 9 7 6 2 4 5 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 6 5 5 4 4 6 5 2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 112 109 89 70 67 74 39 54 291 296 33 49 82 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 159 160 163 162 162 160 156 156 158 157 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 64 62 63 63 64 62 60 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 30 21 11 17 27 32 24 31 33 45 38 200 MB DIV 40 55 80 94 91 113 109 65 28 -3 14 41 72 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1295 1315 1342 1397 1462 1619 1797 1969 2118 2215 2229 2143 2035 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.2 8.6 7.8 7.0 6.1 5.7 5.9 6.8 7.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.6 112.2 112.9 113.6 115.1 116.6 118.1 119.3 120.4 121.0 121.0 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 9 8 8 7 4 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 67 73 79 84 83 55 28 23 22 23 24 23 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 19. 29. 38. 43. 44. 46. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.2 110.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 77.2 0.0 to 75.9 1.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 12.2% 13.9% 2.7% 1.3% 25.4% 19.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.7% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 0.9% 6.3% 5.4% 0.9% 0.5% 8.5% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##