* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 05/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 32 40 50 57 65 68 69 68 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 32 40 50 57 65 68 69 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 37 42 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 12 11 8 8 6 7 1 4 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 2 5 3 5 4 8 7 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 97 117 101 96 82 53 76 31 49 92 267 360 27 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 158 158 159 162 162 162 162 159 155 155 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 68 66 65 66 65 65 63 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 6 8 8 6 6 5 7 7 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 29 30 32 22 20 28 33 23 34 39 47 200 MB DIV 29 27 30 53 72 101 102 94 74 27 7 24 41 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1265 1279 1308 1332 1361 1448 1576 1728 1905 2043 2189 2266 2248 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.0 7.4 6.8 6.2 6.0 6.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.2 110.8 111.4 111.9 113.0 114.5 115.9 117.6 119.2 120.8 121.8 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 5 5 6 8 8 8 9 7 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 68 73 79 86 69 34 24 22 23 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 10. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 20. 30. 37. 45. 48. 49. 48. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.8 109.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 13.2% 10.5% 2.1% 1.0% 20.4% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.8% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 0.9% 6.3% 4.9% 1.0% 0.4% 6.8% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 05/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##