* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 05/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 51 60 67 70 72 74 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 40 51 60 67 70 72 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 25 28 33 39 45 50 56 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 11 14 8 8 7 5 6 5 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -2 -2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 102 113 114 122 121 91 84 89 53 47 59 68 47 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 158 158 158 160 162 161 162 162 159 158 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 69 71 70 68 64 64 66 66 64 65 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 22 25 22 21 28 14 19 30 26 28 34 34 200 MB DIV 18 29 34 27 48 93 100 97 64 51 11 28 37 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1263 1282 1304 1345 1389 1462 1541 1675 1795 1932 2048 2100 2119 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.3 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.6 7.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.1 110.6 111.3 111.9 112.8 113.6 114.8 115.9 117.2 118.7 119.9 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 4 5 7 6 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 63 65 68 73 79 84 78 54 29 23 23 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 31. 41. 47. 50. 52. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.7 109.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 05/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 69.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 5.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 3.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 05/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##