* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 10/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 47 50 50 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 30 29 27 27 27 33 33 32 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 31 28 27 27 30 30 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 11 12 7 9 9 6 8 14 20 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 2 1 -4 -3 -1 3 -1 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 108 102 99 91 106 158 168 225 206 226 232 245 231 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.8 29.7 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 159 153 150 153 162 160 152 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 62 60 52 53 50 48 44 43 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 67 57 69 89 42 37 31 29 26 25 10 8 200 MB DIV 62 45 53 77 111 30 14 13 -4 -2 9 3 3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 2 0 1 6 6 3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 142 118 69 -10 -93 -186 -146 -6 118 222 226 207 213 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.1 104.1 103.9 103.6 103.3 103.9 105.3 106.7 107.7 108.2 108.5 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 8 6 2 5 7 6 4 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 20 15 15 18 27 25 14 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 104.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 10/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 23.8% 16.5% 16.1% 0.0% 20.8% 20.2% 30.2% Logistic: 2.2% 9.5% 6.7% 3.4% 0.7% 4.4% 2.0% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 11.8% 7.9% 6.5% 0.2% 8.4% 7.4% 11.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 10/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##