* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 10/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 30 34 39 42 46 46 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 26 26 27 27 31 31 31 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 26 26 27 27 30 29 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 15 10 9 8 10 7 8 12 19 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 -1 0 -3 -3 1 2 2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 106 112 113 110 112 181 176 200 214 230 227 242 226 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.3 30.0 29.1 28.7 28.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 161 155 151 151 157 164 154 148 149 156 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 10 6 10 4 7 3 6 4 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 60 59 55 51 51 48 47 43 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 73 69 62 72 72 34 27 24 26 12 19 8 200 MB DIV 84 70 61 58 75 62 2 8 5 -7 6 11 26 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 0 7 6 5 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 128 100 61 0 -83 -212 -198 -76 63 201 216 177 165 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.7 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.1 103.8 103.2 103.3 104.5 106.1 107.5 108.2 108.4 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 7 4 3 7 7 5 2 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 23 21 16 16 16 21 30 16 10 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 104.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 10/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.30 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 9.1% 4.4% 2.2% 0.8% 4.1% 4.0% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 9.2% 7.3% 0.7% 0.3% 7.7% 7.5% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 10/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##