* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 10/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 23 28 33 38 41 41 42 43 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 18 21 25 26 27 27 31 32 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 20 25 26 27 27 30 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 14 7 5 8 10 11 12 20 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 1 0 0 -1 1 3 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 99 98 110 122 133 171 190 196 249 237 238 238 241 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.5 30.2 29.6 29.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 159 155 151 150 153 159 165 158 157 166 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 9 8 8 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 65 60 53 54 52 49 44 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 59 76 67 55 71 30 32 15 25 12 25 8 200 MB DIV 77 89 75 64 63 80 32 23 21 0 -6 6 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -4 3 0 3 7 6 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 120 94 50 -7 -76 -231 -281 -198 -40 72 150 143 45 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.3 19.1 20.6 21.3 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 102.8 102.5 103.3 104.9 106.3 107.3 107.6 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 7 8 6 2 6 8 6 4 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 20 16 14 15 18 23 28 18 17 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 21. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.2 103.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 10/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.5% 3.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 10/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##