* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 10/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 24 29 35 39 42 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 23 25 26 27 31 32 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 24 26 26 29 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 18 13 10 6 12 6 8 13 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 3 1 -1 0 -4 3 2 4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 104 100 95 109 115 95 141 173 207 205 231 224 244 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.2 30.2 29.5 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 162 156 151 151 156 166 157 152 155 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 9 7 6 9 6 9 4 7 3 7 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 66 64 61 57 52 51 48 45 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 55 67 75 76 78 68 34 26 22 19 17 20 200 MB DIV 61 78 89 80 67 74 66 5 11 14 -7 -4 8 700-850 TADV 4 1 -3 -1 -2 -2 1 0 5 6 6 0 0 LAND (KM) 170 167 152 113 69 -59 -202 -197 -73 56 162 188 165 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.5 18.0 19.4 20.7 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.3 104.2 104.0 104.0 103.9 103.3 103.3 104.5 106.1 107.2 107.8 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 4 5 8 5 3 7 7 5 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 25 24 18 16 17 20 30 18 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.2 104.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 10/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 4.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 10/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##