* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 10/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 36 40 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 27 31 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 19 24 26 26 27 30 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 18 17 7 5 9 9 8 11 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 3 -2 2 -2 0 1 6 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 97 85 100 96 109 136 123 165 186 231 224 230 241 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.4 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.4 30.4 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 162 158 153 150 152 158 167 162 161 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 7 8 7 8 5 5 4 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 69 67 63 59 53 53 50 47 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 53 55 64 75 61 80 34 35 17 19 14 24 200 MB DIV 61 61 79 96 83 69 82 37 3 25 8 -5 4 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 -3 -1 -2 1 0 2 6 6 2 0 LAND (KM) 155 157 140 110 76 -31 -201 -261 -212 -53 49 105 90 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.9 20.5 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.1 103.8 103.6 103.5 103.6 103.2 102.7 103.2 104.8 106.1 106.9 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 5 8 7 2 6 7 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 26 25 24 18 15 16 19 22 30 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.3 104.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 10/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 4.3% 7.5% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 2.5% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 10/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##