* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 09/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 39 45 48 52 51 51 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 39 45 48 52 51 51 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 25 23 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 4 5 4 2 4 4 8 9 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -4 -2 0 1 0 2 3 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 332 37 181 168 182 259 302 267 237 327 321 270 254 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 152 151 152 144 140 135 127 123 122 129 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 71 67 65 67 64 64 59 60 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 12 13 12 13 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -26 -18 -4 5 19 18 25 36 17 23 1 26 200 MB DIV 42 31 41 53 65 68 15 14 13 -6 -5 19 27 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 0 0 2 2 4 0 3 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 668 721 779 784 795 863 957 1038 1142 1235 1268 1321 1414 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 10 8 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 16 14 15 9 8 6 1 0 0 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 14. 20. 23. 27. 26. 26. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 109.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 09/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.91 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 22.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 25.3% 12.9% 7.1% 1.3% 16.8% 16.0% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 16.7% 12.1% 2.4% 0.5% 12.7% 12.7% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 09/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##