* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 09/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 51 51 48 46 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 51 51 48 46 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 30 29 27 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 1 3 3 1 3 5 4 7 9 7 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 3 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 4 341 345 290 353 276 307 330 207 291 12 351 260 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.9 28.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 151 152 148 143 144 131 130 129 125 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 71 67 65 64 60 60 57 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 7 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -25 -27 -18 -9 2 15 10 29 13 5 -7 -25 200 MB DIV 77 46 44 52 57 60 48 24 15 9 -13 5 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 0 -1 0 1 1 5 2 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 706 741 792 851 857 913 1013 1105 1159 1220 1287 1341 1389 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 18 17 17 12 10 15 4 4 3 1 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 26. 26. 23. 21. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 109.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 09/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.93 7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.3% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 23.2% 24.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 34.9% 17.8% 11.5% 1.6% 28.9% 26.6% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 21.4% 14.6% 3.9% 0.5% 17.4% 17.0% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 09/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##