* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902019 09/11/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 44 45 43 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 44 45 43 40 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 30 28 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 8 6 6 5 12 16 20 16 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 351 328 300 298 301 260 241 246 255 263 276 281 278 SST (C) 29.6 30.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.0 26.2 26.0 25.4 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 166 158 158 160 155 153 145 127 125 118 125 116 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 75 76 74 70 65 60 57 51 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -34 -36 -38 -29 -21 -1 19 39 27 43 40 54 200 MB DIV 79 84 60 46 66 64 68 64 18 27 -2 8 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 3 5 7 4 -1 5 LAND (KM) 641 626 628 655 665 766 766 830 899 1029 1185 1350 1538 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.5 18.6 19.5 20.3 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.5 106.6 107.8 108.9 111.1 113.2 115.5 117.9 120.5 123.3 125.9 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 42 61 25 20 20 18 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 18. 15. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 104.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 09/11/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.73 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.3% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 28.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 33.2% 15.0% 9.9% 1.3% 35.5% 58.4% 19.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 9.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 1.8% 24.6% 15.1% 3.6% 0.5% 20.4% 29.3% 6.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 09/11/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##